Third Annual Macroeconomics and Business CYCLE Conference

May 16-19, 2016

sponsored by

The Laboratory for Aggregate Economics and Finance

University of California, Santa Barbara



Conference Schedule

*speakers are highlighted in author listings*



Monday, May 16:  Labor Markets and the Economy

8:30-9:30            Technology, Skill and the Wage Structure

Nancy L. Stokey (University of Chicago and NBER)


9:30-9:45 Break


9:45-10:45 On the Welfare Implications of Automation             

                Maya Eden (World Bank Organization) and Paul Gaggl (University of North Carolina                                       Charlotte)


10:45-11:00 Break


11:00-12:00 Optimal Unemployment Insurance and Cyclical Fluctuations         

                                Rui Li (University of Massachusetts) and Noah Williams (University of Wisconsin)


12:00-12:15 Choose box lunch for next presentation


12:15-1:15Retirement Financing: An Optimal Reform Approach             

                                Roozbeh Hosseini (Arizona State University) and Ali Shourideh (Wharton School)



Adjourn for the day




Tuesday, May 17:  Business Cycle and Macroeconomic Performance


8:30-9:30: Identifying Ambiguity Shocks in Business cycle models        

Anmol Bhandari (University of Minnesota), Jaroslav Borovicka (New York University)Paul Ho (Princeton University)


9:30-9:45 Break


9:45-10:45The Tail that Wags the Economy: Belief-Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation                                  Julian Kozlowski (New York University)Laura Veldkamp (Stern School of Business, New York                      University), Venky Venkateswaran (Stern School of Business, New York University)

                10:45-11:00 Break


11:00-12:00Asymmetric and State Dependent Dynamics in Credit and Labor Markets                                                                   Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)Ben Tengelsen (Carnegie                      Mellon University), and Etienne Wasmer (The Paris Institute of Political Studies, France)

12:00-12:15 Choose box lunch for next presentation


12:15-1:15           The Slow Job Recovery in a Macro Model if Search and Recruiting Intensity                                                        Sylvain Leduc (San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank)  and Zheng Liu (San Francisco Federal                            Reserve Bank)  


1:15-1:30 Group Photo on 2nd level Terrace and then adjourn for the day





Wednesday, May 18:  Transmission Mechanism and the Business Cycle


8:30-9:30 Mortgage Debt, Consumption, and Illiquid Housing Markets in the Great Recession                               

Carlos Garriga (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) and Aaron Hedlund (University of Missouri)


9:30-9:45 Break


9:45-10:45 Consumption and House Prices in the Great Recession: Model Meets Evidence     

                Greg Kaplan (Princeton University and NBER)Kurt Mitman (Institute for International   Economic Studies), and Giovanni L. Violante (New York University, CPER and NBER)


10:45-11:00 Break









11:00-12:00The Mortgage Credit Channel of Macroeconomic Transmission      

Daniel Lewis Greenwald (New York University)


12:00-12:15 Choose box lunch for next presentation


12:15-1:15How Credit Constraints Impact Job Findings Rates, Sorting and Aggregate Output                                                    
Kyle Herkenhoff (University of Minnesota), Gordon Phillips (University of Southern                                        California and NBER), and Ethan Cohen-Cole (Econ One Research)

                Adjourn for the day




Thursday, May 19 Money and Financial Markets and Financial Decisions


8:30-9:30            Inequality and Policy Changes:  the case of a decline on inflation in open economies

Bernardino Adao (Banco de Portugal)  and Isabel Correia Banco de Portugal, Universidade Catolica Portuguesa and CEPR)


9:30-9:45 Break


9:45-10:45           A Demand Theory of the Price Level

                Marcus Hagedorn (University of Oslo)


10:45-11:00 Break


11:00-12:00 Optimal Central Bank Policy in a model of Regional Shocks and Private Information           

                                Pamela Labadie (George Washington University)  


12:00-12:15 Choose box lunch for next presentation


12:15-1:15 Taxing Top CEO Incomes     

Laurence Ales (Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University) and Christopher Sleet (Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University)


                Adjourn for the day





 Conference Organizers:  Carlos Garriga and Peter Rupert